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It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

According to Opta, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.